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Forex Market Timing - Why If You Try and Predict Your Guaranteed To Lose

Forex Market Timing - Why If You Try and Predict Your Guaranteed To Lose



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The Tweezer Forex Signal: How To Trade It

By : Michael A. Jones
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Certain formations on Japanese candlestick charts can provide a reliable Forex signal if you interpret them right and realize the limitations of candlesticks in the foreign exchange market.

Candlestick formations work particularly well in some markets where there are clearly defined opening and closing periods such as the futures and equity markets. The Forex on the other hand is a 24 hour market place that runs for nearly six days a week and therefore it doesn't have the distinct open and close timings that make Japanese candlestick formations such significant indicators.

However, there is a significant candlestick formation that can be used as a Forex signal taking into account the open closing times of various markets (New York, European, Asian sessions) and the overlapping times when market reaction is more pronounced.

This Forex signal is commonly called the Tweezer shape. It consists of two candles side by side with short bodies at the base and long wicks that extend upward. The two candles can be either identical in shape or they may simply have approximately the same size body and wick. Conversely they can be the other way, a short body at the top with long wicks extending downward.

WHY can the tweezer candle formation be a significant Forex signal?

It helps to understand what is represented by a candlestick. There is a need to go behind the scenes and perceive what is actually going on in the market.

Every candle represents a battle between the bears and the bulls, struggling to gain dominance. In the case of a tweezer candle formation at the top of a price move, the bulls took price up to a certain level but were unable to hold it and price came back.

In the second candle period, the bulls again tried to take price up but only succeeded in reaching the high of the previous candle and again their efforts failed with price coming back. A new high was reached, then an attempt made to pass it which failed, the bears wresting control from the bulls.

If a tweezer formation is seen at the end of a large downward move in price, then the opposite is true. The bears have not been able to maintain new lows and the bulls have wrested control.

The tweezer candlestick formation as a reliable Forex signal is conditional however on other factors.

WHEN can the tweezer candle formation be a significant Forex signal?

It is probably unwise to just take a tweezer formation as an instant Forex signal to go long if the tweezers form at the top of a run up in price or short in a drop in price. A reliable Forex signal involves many factors not just one.

Here are some key points to keep in mind:

Tweezer formations on higher time frames (1 hour, 4 hour) are more significant. At times a tweezer on a 15 minute chart can provide a good Forex signal if it coincides with other factors mentioned below.

Tweezer formations can be significant when they come at a key level of resistance or support, or if they are on a pivot line, or a Fibonacci retracement or extension level.

Tweezer formations are not such a reliable Forex signal if they come in a consolidation pattern when price is caught in a channel.

Tweezer formations can be significant if they come at the end of a major run in price that is equal to or exceeds the average daily range. If you pull up your Average True Range indicator and see what the average price movement has been for that currency pair for the last five days and compare it with the current price movement, if price has already moved by the average number of pips and you now see a tweezer formation, there is a higher probability you can safely enter a trade in the opposite direction.

Tweezer formations can also be a reliable Forex signal if you take into account the average daily range and the time of day when the tweezer formation appears. If it appears at the close of the London session for example, or the end of the New York session, it is unlikely price is going to go much farther for the remainder of that day. The likelihood is price will retrace and that is where you can catch some good pips.

Trying to find the perfect Forex signal is a futile exercise as no such signal exists. However, there are certain indicators that when put together can constitute a reliable Forex signal that works more times than it fails.

Learn to recognize the tweezer candlestick formation. Take note of where it appears in relation to price action, check the time of day, look at your other favorite indicators, and if they all line up, pull the trigger!

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